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Innovations Will Rock Commercial Sector

Businesses, be aware and prepare. The latest wave of digital disruptions is rolling in, and future success depends on being ready for them and their effects. A comprehensive yearlong study reveals that, in the next three to five years, emerging technologies will reshape industry and initiate new business models.

Between now and then, however, the state of the commercial sector can best be described as chaotic, a condition that could last as long as a decade, experts say. Both traditional business models and their replacements remain on shaky ground, and the effects from the creation of a stunning capability, such as the perfection of quantum computing, quickly give rise to both opportunities and obstacles.

After months of investigation, a team of researchers led by Alex Fuss arrived at a list of seven digital disruptions that are likely to affect companies in the future. The chief technology officer for the financial services sector of Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Fuss offers that businesses may be caught off balance by the digital revolution now taking place.

Although CSC’s Leading Edge Forum (LEF) organized the research that went into the Digital Disruptions report, input was received from a number of experts from industry, government and academia. Among the contributors were personnel from Amazon.com, the Georgia Institute of Technology and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

New media is the first of the seven digital disruptions that already are influencing business in the 21st century. It is all about interaction. Unlike the mega-mogul movie and television producers of the past century, today’s media content creators are sitting in front of their own computers in the comfort of their own homes; consumers are doing the same.

The second digital disruption is what the researchers refer to as “living in a new reality”—virtual reality. Blending virtual and real worlds enables computer users to move between time and space, interact in new ways and enjoy new experiences, once again without leaving the comfort of their homes.

Network-centric is the buzz word in the military and has taken on new meaning with the introduction of social networks. This third digital disruption concerns the ability to locate and communicate with people who share similar interests or expertise, and it already is shifting the balance of power in advertising, money lending and music.

Information transparency is the fourth digital disruption and is a double-edged sword. It now is easier to find information about people and processes than ever before, enabling organizations to locate their employees and assets in real time.

The fifth concern that businesses need to pay attention to is what the research team calls a new wave of waves. Discoveries about how better to use spectrum will cause its allocation to be an issue of the past.

Number six on the digital disruptions list is the introduction of next-generation computational power. While silicon has reigned supreme, its power over computing capabilities may be coming to an end with the emergence of new methods based on nanotechnology as well as molecular, quantum and optical computing. Cryptography most likely will be the victim of this digital disruption.

The final digital disruption the researchers predict involves the user-machine interface. While today’s computers have made work and play infinitely easier, problems remain. Interoperability, unexplained computer crashes and even the old-fashioned means of inputting data—using a keyboard—currently hinder the true usefulness of technologies. However, changes already are occurring in this area, Fuss says.

Fuss contends that the digital revolution will have an impact that is 10 or even 100 times that of the industrial revolution. He also points out that a company’s reactions to change can produce damaging results. “There are companies that have established ways of earning their revenue, and if they’re complacent, they’ll be caught by surprise and it will be a negative disruption,” Fuss says.

Agreeing with Clay Shirky, consultant and adjunct professor in New YorkUniversity’s graduate Interactive Telecommunications Program, Fuss says that a revolution in the commercial sector business paradigm can be messy. “When there’s a change, a disruption, we don’t go cleanly from legacy business model A to business model B. We go from A to chaos to B, and we’re in this chaotic phase now; it could go on for a decade or more,” Fuss states.

“The balance of power has swung to the customer. That’s a big theme across this report. Customers now are networked. They have information,” Fuss says.

Borrowing from Nike and adding a twist, Fuss asserts that organizations should “just get started. There are some companies that are sitting on their hands and overanalyzing. You have to do some analysis, but it’s also good just to get started and put yourself in a position to benefit from other opinions and technologies."

Read an expanded version of this article in the March 2009 issue of SIGNAL Magazine, in the mail to AFCEA members and subscribers March 2, 2009. For more information about purchasing this issue, joining AFCEA or subscribing to SIGNAL, contact AFCEA Member Services.