IARPA Announces Publication of Forecasting Data
The published information is intended to foster entrepreneurship, innovation and scientific discovery.
Forecasting data collected during the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity's (IARPA’s) Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program by team Good Judgment is now available for use by the public and the research community via https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/gjp.
In a statement, IARPA officials say they hope to fuel entrepreneurship, innovation and scientific discovery by publishing the information. This data set includes millions of forecasts made by participants over the four years of the ACE forecasting competition and led to many findings regarding the accuracy of human judgment about geopolitical events, including that averaging the most historically accurate forecasters outperforms individual forecasters.
Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project, which seeks to harness the wisdom of the crowd for forecasting world events.