New DARPA Initiative Challenges the Creation of Operational Quantum Computers

Will quantum computers really change the world, or will they never fully come to fruition? Joe Altepeter, who has been researching quantum computing for more than 15 years and is a program manager for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Microsystems Technology Office, said it could likely go either way, but he is determined to put quantum computing to the test with DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.

For Altepeter, the initiative boils down to two main questions: If someone created a quantum computer, what industry would it transform? And, is there anyone close to causing this transformation in the next 10 years?

The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is designed to determine if any quantum computing approach could become utility-scale operational by 2033. DARPA has recently selected 18 quantum computing companies to enter Stage A of the program, in which companies have six months to propose a quantum computer concept that could realistically reach industrial utility within the next 10 years. Stage B will grant the companies one year to describe a research and development plan with risks and ways to mitigate the risks, and Stage C, the final stage, will challenge the companies to verify and validate their technologies with the government, which could take around three years.

The selected companies include Alice & Bob, Atlantic Quantum, Atom Computing, Diraq, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, IBM, IonQ, Nord Quantique, Oxford Ionics, Photonic Inc., Quantinuum, Quantum Motion, Rigetti Computing, Silicon Quantum Computing and Xanadu.

Altepeter said he has always been a tough critic of quantum computing proposals, but he’s hoping for the selected companies to challenge his assumptions.

“DARPA's mission is to prevent strategic surprise from technology,” Altepeter told SIGNAL Media in an interview.

While designing and creating the first fully functional quantum computer for industry use may be daunting, Altepeter said the excitement and confidence from participating companies have been impressive.

“These companies have all raised their hand and said they're doing it with or without the government,” Altepeter said. “They're doing this to dominate this industry in the coming decades.”

Entering Stage A, each selected company received $1 million to dedicate staffing and resources to this program. According to Altepeter, companies that make it to Stage B will receive $5 million for reaching the basic milestones, and if any companies make it to Stage C, DARPA could offer up to $300 million, but that will depend entirely on what the companies will need for their development and prototype plans.

To determine if companies will progress through the three stages, Altepeter said DARPA has formed a qualified test and evaluation team of 300 researchers from several of the major laboratories in the United States.

In all honesty, Altepeter said he’s not confident that any companies will successfully make it through Stage C, but he’s keeping an open mind because he would be thrilled to be proved wrong.

There isn’t just one technology that can make quantum computing possible. Many of the selected companies are pursuing different ways of creating quantum bits (qubits), the building blocks of quantum computers, ranging from precision atom qubits in silicon to fluxonium qubits with co-located cryogenic controls. Since the companies will conduct plans for varying technologies, the metrics of success will be different as well.

“What I am really intrigued by is that there's this many plausible answers to this [question of quantum computing] this late in the game,” Altepeter explained. “It's really anybody's game right now.”

If any company successfully develops the first utility-scale operational quantum computer, the first use of the emerging technology could range widely. Altepeter said he’s most excited for the potential for quantum computers to be able to simulate new anti-corrosion coatings, which can only be done with high levels of precision. Other expensive problems like making fertilizer and testing new rocket fuels could also potentially be solved more efficiently by quantum computers, Altepeter explained.

As for the future of the program, even if none of the companies make it to Stage C, if their research suggests that quantum computers could emerge within the next 10 years, Altepeter said it would be a good idea to open the program to more companies because someone who was rejected the first time could have the answer down the line.

"If the answer is nobody can do this, that's great. We'll double down on basic research and spend that money curing cancer and building giant robots,” Altepeter said. “If we find out that this is right around the corner and it's going to be a huge deal, then we'll advise the right agencies that they should go out and get one [a quantum computer]. We’ll see. We're right at the beginning, so it's extremely exciting to us.”