Europe Addresses an Uncertain Future

As part of NATO, Europe has linked its security to that of its transatlantic partners in North America—the United States and Canada. European and North American countries share the common foundations of democracy and freedom. Consequently, they face common enemies opposed to those noble concepts.

But those enemies now are posing a different type of threat to the future of Europe’s cherished freedoms. And, having prevailed peacefully through the end of the Cold War, Europe now faces a more difficult mission as it tries to ensure its security against a foe that is based far away but possesses a deadly reach into the heart of the continent.

Ironically, the end of the Cold War increased the ambiguity of the European security picture to a greater degree than envisioned. Absent the threat of a monolithic communist invasion, NATO reinvented itself as a regional security organization that would prevent local threats from blowing up into conflagrations menacing the peace and security of its members. That approach earned its first test in the Balkans, where NATO forces helped bring an end to the burgeoning conflicts and ethnic genocide that were plaguing the former Yugoslav republics and threatening to spread to their neighbors.

To extend this concept of security, NATO began a period of enlargement in which it admitted many former members of the Warsaw Pact. These newly freed democracies added greatly to NATO’s strength as a security organization, and they brought many diverse capabilities to support alliance activities. But they also brought with them their own unique security requirements and challenges, and these have helped complicate NATO’s own efforts to establish a continent-wide security environment.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, changed the global security picture irreversibly. Unlike what most planners expected, the United States found itself the first beneficiary of NATO invoking Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty establishing the alliance: “ … an armed attack against one or more … shall be considered an attack against them all … .” These attacks on the United States were followed by terrorist bombings in Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

Suddenly, NATO was in combat against an elusive nomadic enemy that based itself in a distant region known more for lawlessness than for responsible government. As alliance forces took the fight to Southwest Asia, they faced challenges far beyond those of a tactical nature. NATO was extending its military reach well outside of its expected area of operations, and the alliance’s military construct was not designed with this type of expeditionary nature in mind.

So NATO and its European members have had to retool for expeditionary operations. With the end of the Cold War, Europe’s biggest military change was to shift from a content-based warfighting infrastructure to one emphasizing mobility. But an expeditionary approach goes far beyond mere mobility. It requires extending the reach of military strength without sacrificing key capabilities.

Yet European forces cannot retool for out-of-area operations exclusively. Regional security concerns have not faded, and new ones have appeared. Cyberspace threats negate the idea of traditional military deterrence. Organized crime is reaping large profits and has shown signs of teaming with terrorist groups and rogue governments.

And, for the first time, analysts are seriously considering economic upheaval as a security issue. The global economic meltdown has altered relationships among many countries, and internal stresses in some nations could erupt into violence—either internal or directed outward.

NATO is addressing these dynamic conditions. The alliance is striving to address security concerns in a holistic manner that encompasses diplomatic and economic measures in addition to military capabilities. Recognizing that democracies around the world face similar challenges, it is developing closer relations with other like-minded nations and groups far outside of NATO’s traditional realm.

But the countries of Europe cannot count on a clear path to continued peace and prosperity. The security efforts underway in Europe are good steps, but no clear picture is emerging as to what may lie ahead. Europe must live with uncertainty as it continues to build its security.

—The Editor

More information on NATO is available in the September 2009 issue of SIGNAL Magazine, in the mail to AFCEA members and subscribers September 1, 2009. For information about purchasing this issue, joining AFCEA or subscribing to SIGNAL, contact AFCEA Member Services.