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Commercial Partners: Understand and Prepare for Adversarial Threats in Space

Space Systems Command intelligence officer warns of the possible dangerous impacts to spacecraft from China and Russia, in particular.

The free-flying Tracking and Data Relay Satellite-E (TDRS-E), still attached to an Inertial Upper Stage (IUS), flies in low-Earth orbit (LEO) in 2009. With the boom in commercial solutions in space, companies need to understand the threats from adversaries. Credit: NASA

The space domain is not what it once was. It is increasingly congested and contested, with sophisticated capabilities from adversaries intentionally designed to cause harm. And with the increasing commercialization of space and increase in access to space, the domain has become much more complex, said 1st Lt. Amy Padilla, deputy branch chief of the Intelligence Analysis Branch, Intelligence Directorate, Space Systems Command (SSC).

“Our adversaries are a serious threat to our national interests in, from and to space,” Lt. Padilla said, speaking at the Space Force Industry Days, held in Los Angeles by the AFCEA LA Chapter, NDIA, the Southern California Aerospace Professional Representative (SCAPR), the Air and Spaces Schiever Chapter and the U.S. Space Force’s SSC. “China and Russia seek to position themselves as the global superpower in the space domain, undermining our interests wherever they can.”

With the growing reliance and emphasis on space-based commercial capabilities for warfighting, the U.S. military needs secure solutions from the private sector.

“It is important to note that nearly every nation uses space for both commercial and military purposes,” the deputy branch chief explained. “This includes everything from positioning, navigation and timing to satellite communications, weather forecasting, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, IRS data collection and space domain awareness.”

The threats to American space-based assets range from nonkinetic to kinetic and from reversible, or so-called soft kill state, to hard kill, or irrevocable destruction.

The list is long and concerning.

Our adversaries have invested heavily in electronic warfare, offensive cyber, directed energy weapons, orbital threats, kinetic weapons and high-altitude nuclear detonation.

Regarding cyber-based attacks, the adversarial approaches differ. “China has emphasized offensive cyber capabilities as a major component of their information warfare, and they are the most active and persistent cyber threat,” Lt. Padilla noted. “Russia, they also use cyber attacks, but in a different sense. They use it if they want to soften targets ahead of a hard kill or conventional engagement.”

Directed energy weapons, including lasers, high-powered microwave weapons, millimeter wave emitters and particle beam weapons, are also a danger to U.S. assets in space. And while an adversary has to have a target in their field of view, which makes it possible to attribute where an effect came from, battle damage assessments are often hindered, the lieutenant noted.

“One effect of DEWs [directed energy weapons] is to dazzle or blind sensors or to suddenly damage them,” Lt. Padilla said. “Kind of like if somebody is shining a flashlight in your eyes and blinding you for a second, or if you stare at the sun for four hours, you're probably going to have some permanent damage; you can do that in this sense [with DEWs]. So, it can be hard for us to accurately and quickly make those damage assessments with these weapons.”

Orbital threats involve a similar range of effects as terrestrial weapons. However, there is much less possibility for an early indication or warning, as they are harder to track. Only a few countries have these type of sophisticated on-orbit threats, namely China and Russia.

Seemingly, the scariest of all, high-altitude nuclear detonation “would almost certainly” destroy thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO). “Many more would become inoperable, including satellites on the opposite side of Earth, with an immediate cost of trillions of dollars,” Lt. Padilla stressed. “The radiation would linger for years.”

Russia has denied the existence of an on-orbit nuclear weapon. In February, U.S. officials warned about a potential violation of the Outer Space Treaty that prohibits such aggression.

The lieutenant also noted that many of the satellite constellations in LEO are commercial assets and that companies may not be taking nuclear hardening needs seriously.