Risk Aversion Strategy, Incentive Structure Needs Fundamental Modifications

One Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) official is urging crews in the national security space to establish several fundamental changes to achieve their maximum potential. Revolutionizing the risk aversion and incentive structure spaces is critical for improving capability development, ultimately leading to a more effective national security infrastructure, according to Scott Bumgarner, intelligence community senior procurement executive at the ODNI. 

Bumgarner stressed that national security personnel must be more willing to take chances and risk failing rather than playing it safe and not experimenting. This is critical not only because their experimentation could be successful, but also because even if they fail, researchers can still learn valuable lessons and eliminate the concepts that did not flourish. 

“It’s like you take a personal risk by doing something that might not work, [but] we know that in order to get the proof of roots of some of the most innovative practices—they don’t necessarily work the first time, but you learn some powerful insights by doing that,” Bumgarner said at the 2025 Intelligence & National Security Summit held in National Harbor, Maryland. “We forego that when we make it so institutional, and we have well-intentioned individuals, and I'm not here to critique that, but they pass on that culture, and I see it all the time, and it’s really sad.” 

Furthermore, reshaping the culture into a more experimental one will take time and resources, Bumgarner added. This transition will require government officials to invest time in training and learning how to adapt to the experimentation culture. Additionally, agencies and departments within the federal government might even have to change or add groups and teams filled with personnel who are dedicated to these tasks, which is something that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has already started, according to Bumgarner.  

“So, one of the things that I think is most exciting is something that the DHS has done through their Procurement Innovation Lab is they have an internal group of acquisition consultants that get forward-deployed just temporarily when they’re trying to do something new through the varied customers that DHS has. And one of the things that it has—it’s very different than bringing in an outside consultant—is the antibodies that inevitably sometimes come into play when you bring in someone that’s not intrinsically involved in that organization.” 

“It doesn’t occur with them, because these are your colleagues that are being brought in, and they’re just brought in just enough to get it jump-started,” Bumgarner added. “And hopefully the learning curve gets more efficient next time you do it, because they’re really good at that. And I think obviously it takes some resources to invest to do that, but it’s very forward-leaning, and I think it can be used in a whole variety of environments, so there are some encouraging avenues like that, so it’s not all pessimistic.”  

Federal government officials should also reimagine the incentive structure in the acquisitions realm. To urge crews to utilize new innovations, leaders should steer their personnel in two directions, Bumgarner explained.  

“So, when I looked deeper into this, I think part of this—and I’m a true believer in the power of incentives—the right incentives can encourage desirable behavior, and the wrong incentives obviously can discourage it. So, one of the things that I’ve seen so many times again is we make things more burdensome to use the innovation.” 

“Instead of making it easier and [having] a greater propensity to want to use it, you actually have to go through more of our choice approval chains,” Bumgarner added. “That alone doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it or don’t do it, but it is an impediment. And if you want to use incentives properly, I think you actually should make it more arduous to not use the innovation when it makes sense.”