The Current State of Quantum Computing
This article, prepared in conjunction with AFCEA’s Technology Committee, is the first in a series of three articles addressing quantum computing.
Understanding the concept of quantum physics lays the foundation for distinguishing how quantum computers differ from classical ones. Unlike the binary logic used by classical computers, where computation is confined to zeros and ones, quantum computers leverage a state known as superposition, which allows for simultaneous existence of zeroes and ones. This state, referred to as quantum bits or qubits, offers an endless range of possibilities, enabling the exploration of numerous algorithmic pathways at once. This approach accelerates problem-solving and elevates computational performance to unprecedented levels.
Further amplifying this power is a phenomenon called entanglement, where qubits are closely linked to enable simultaneous manipulation of all states. To put it simply, entanglement enables us to examine the resources of a system concurrently, thereby significantly enhancing the efficiency of traditional computers for a range of potentially valuable tasks.
Quantum computing is a computational approach that applies quantum mechanics' principles to process, store and manipulate large data sets and perform complex calculations beyond the scope of traditional computers. Although quantum computing technology is in its nascent stages, advancements have been made to perform calculations that classical computers are incapable of.
Experts anticipate revolutionary applications for quantum technologies, such as safeguarding cryptography, enhancing data analysis with quantum machine learning, improving portfolio optimization and supply chain management algorithms, creating more secure blockchain solutions and simulating intricate chemical reactions to assist in drug development.
Significant Game Changers
1. Quantum computing has already touched business and technology, and this trend appears to continue. According to Precedence Research, the market for quantum computing was estimated to be worth $10.13 billion in 2022 and will reach $125 billion by 2030, representing an astounding cumulative average growth rate of more than 36%. This rise in quantum computing is aided by increase demand for high-performance computing.
| Business/Industry | Application | Translation |
| Petroleum/natural gas | Quantum-based optimization for global maritime shipping | Quantum-based optimization could be used for planning the most effective routes for military supply chains, troop movements and strategic asset deployment, considering a variety of complex variables. |
| Financial services/firms | Irregular behavior analysis and fraud detection | The quantum-based irregular behavior analysis and fraud detection could be applied for threat detection, such as identifying unusual or malicious cyber activity critical in cyber warfare. |
| Financial services/firms | Use of quantum key distribution (QKD) for network security | In an age where cybersecurity is paramount, QKD can provide a new level of security to ensure that military communications are not intercepted or tampered with, enhancing the safety of military operations. |
| Aviation | Development of quantum sensors | Quantum sensors could provide enhanced detection capabilities for military aircraft or drones, including superior tracking of enemy aircraft or missiles, detection of submarines or underwater mines. |
| Chinese research initiatives | Quantum communication networks, drone-based communication | Quantum communication networks, particularly those using drones, could provide a new method for secure communication between drones and command centers or among multiple drones coordinating in a mission. |
| Quantum startup ecosystem | Development of various quantum technologies | Given the rapid growth within the quantum startup ecosystem, monitoring this space could allow the military to take advantage of emerging technologies to enhance capabilities and maintain a competitive edge. |
2. According to a Forbes article on the role of quantum technology for businesses, the applications for quantum hybrid optimization reportedly start to be employed and spread. The standard industry phrase for a straightforward concept—a quantum computer and a conventional computer cooperating to solve a problem—is "hybrid quantum computing."
3. Similar to the rise of cloud computing or artificial intelligence (AI), quantum is commercial and mainstream and is on the road map of every CEO, chief information officer and chief technology officer.
4. Government, academia and industry involvement in quantum computing will significantly rise, both in terms of investment and the need for national security measures.
5. With a significant increase in the number of policy/ethics discussions and debates surrounding national quantum policies, it is imperative to focus on balancing the need for domestic industry development with the goal of global market development and international cooperation.
The Warfighter's Cutting Edge
The potential of quantum computing is immense, and it promises to revolutionize the military arena by equipping warfighters with unprecedented advantages. From secure communications to efficient logistics, the applications of this next-generation technology are far-reaching.
Hybrid quantum computing, an integration of quantum and classical computing, is another promising development. This hybrid approach uses classical computer systems to perform functions like data collection and results display, while leveraging quantum computing for complex computational problems that surpass classical computers' capabilities. Hybrid quantum computing platforms are emerging as the go-to solution for non-quantum users seeking to access quantum capabilities via the cloud, thus becoming pivotal to the future adoption of quantum technology.
Hybrid quantum computing is in its nascent stages, yet it holds considerable promise for the warfighter. Although the full potential of this technology is yet to be unlocked, a few practical applications are currently feasible.
| Applications | Description |
Operational Impact and Strategic Considerations |
|
Complex Simulations |
Hybrid systems apply basic computations on classical computers while integrating quantum processing for resource-intensive tasks such as strategic scenario simulations. |
Enhances strategic planning capability. Requires allocation of significant resources and personnel training for operational readiness. |
|
Enhanced Encryption and Security |
Full-scale quantum encryption development is ongoing. Hybrid systems augment data security, pairing classical encryption methods with quantum key distribution. |
Strengthens national cybersecurity defense while presenting potential privacy and regulatory battlespaces. Continual research and development (R&D) is imperative for maintaining technological superiority. |
|
Optimization Problems |
Hybrid quantum computing significantly boosts efficiency in resolving complex optimization problems, such as logistics route planning and resource allocation. |
Potential to increase operational efficiency and budget economy. Integration into existing systems may present initial friction points. |
|
Machine Learning and AI |
Hybrid computing amplifies machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence, augmenting speed and capability to manage complex, high-dimensional problems like real-time analytics and predictive modeling. |
Accelerates AI R&D, with potential for significant tactical advantages. Requires adherence to ethical protocols around AI usage to prevent misuse. |
|
Materials Science |
Hybrid systems expedite simulations of chemical reactions and materials properties, offering potential for discovery of new materials for military applications. |
Promises to advance materials science and military technology. Mandates careful regulation and ethical oversight to prevent potential adversary exploitation. |
As we continue to explore the vast landscape of quantum and hybrid quantum computing, it's clear we stand on the cusp of a technological revolution that can transform drastically the way we conduct military operations. The ability to leverage the power of quantum phenomena, superposition and entanglement while augmenting it with classical computing's strengths allows us to solve previously insurmountable problems. From enhanced battlefield awareness and secure communications to the development of new materials and advanced machine learning capabilities—the potential applications are profound and far-reaching.
However, as we embark on this quantum journey, it's essential to keep in mind that we are at the dawn of this technology, and there's much we have yet to discover and understand. Although hybrid quantum systems currently offer tangible advantages, our focus must remain on continuous research, development and integration.
We should also understand that as much as these quantum advances can be a force for good, they could, in the wrong hands, pose significant security risks. Therefore, a keen eye on ethical guidelines, policy frameworks and proactive strategies to secure our quantum future is of paramount importance.
The promise of quantum and hybrid quantum computing is immense, and it is up to us to harness this power judiciously, responsibly, and ethically. As we continue to push the boundaries of what's possible, we must always strive to do so in a manner that benefits our military objectives, safeguards national security, and upholds the highest ethical standards. This is not just the next phase of computing; it's the next frontier of our technological evolution, and we have the responsibility to navigate it wisely.
The impact of quantum computing extends far beyond technology alone. It has the potential to revolutionize various sectors such as finance, pharmaceuticals, AI (to include generative AI) and cybersecurity, as well as to stimulate a drastic transformation in the digital landscape.
However, there are potential risks associated with quantum computing. Governments and military operations worldwide are grappling with the implications of quantum technologies on national security and economy. Ethical concerns, simulations, encryption, AI models and predictive analytics are all areas of concern.
The race to quantum supremacy has garnered much attention in recent years. The financial services, logistics, transportation, aerospace and automotive industries, materials research, energy, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and health care and cybersecurity sectors are all expected to be profoundly affected by quantum computing. These are strategic domains at the macroeconomic and national security scales.
According to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence 2021 report, quantum computing and other digital transformation technologies, including AI, will significantly affect society's economy, national security and welfare. The report recommends strong U.S. leadership in these fields and urges the establishment of a definitive list of technologies underpinning national competitiveness in the 21st century. Therefore, the race to quantum supremacy is not merely a technological pursuit; it is fundamentally a strategic endeavor.
In our upcoming articles, we will delve deeper into several key areas of concern surrounding the cutting-edge realm of quantum computing. Join us as we unravel the intricate world of encryption, exploring how quantum technologies are poised to revolutionize data security. We'll also examine the crucial role of error correction in harnessing the true potential of quantum computers and shed light on the challenges and advancements in adapting standard programming languages to this quantum landscape. Additionally, we'll explore the exciting realm of secure communications, where quantum advancements are paving the way for unparalleled levels of confidentiality. Stay tuned for an enlightening exploration of these critical topics that will shape the future of computing and its impact on security and communication.
Rich Tran and Franz Klein are members of AFCEA International's Technology Committee. Tran serves as the vice president of business development and strategic growth at VECRA Inc., where he spearheads business expansion efforts across public, private, commercial and international sectors. In parallel, Tran is the co-founder and CEO of trishula.ai, an AI-centric organization committed to powering the digital revolution with cutting-edge GenAI solutions. With a vast portfolio that spans across multiple roles, Tran brings an unparalleled depth of knowledge and strategic acumen to amplifying the value and synergy between technology, business and mission objectives.
Klein is director of the National Quantum Laboratory at Maryland and HPC engineer at the University of Maryland, College Park. He received his Ph.D. in physics from Bonn University, Germany, in 1996, and has been active in software development and in particle/nuclear and quantum physics research for more than 25 years. His current research is focused on near-term applications of quantum computing and quantum communication as well as the development of quantum modems and repeaters to connect quantum devices over large distances.
