Leaders Call for an Integrated Deterrence

Top leaders responsible for defending the United States told Congress yesterday that the current and expected future global threat environment demands an all-encompassing strategy, one that involves strategic nuclear deterrence capabilities through a modernized nuclear triad, but also through an integrated cyber, information warfare and kinetic defense.

In advance of next year’s Defense Department budget, the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces held a hearing March 1 entitled, Fiscal Year 2023 Strategic Forces Posture. Leaders testifying before the so-called HASC included: Sasha Baker, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy; Adm. Charles Richard, USN, commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM); Gen. James Dickinson, USA, commander of the U.S. Space Command; and Gen. Glen VanHerck, USAF, commander of the U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command.

The HASC chair, Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I., said that the Russian president’s actions, including his nuclear-related threats, speak to the gravity of the adversarial environment. “Vladimir Putin's recent announcement that he was placing his nuclear forces on alert made clear to the world the risks of miscalculation,” Rep. Langevin stated. “And what America and the world needs right now is the capability to defend the free world. That means not just keeping up with commercial industry advances but getting the Pentagon to be years ahead of industry. We must have the capability to meet and beat any competitor.” The chair also identified the needed strength of U.S. spaced-based capabilities and a more resilient diversified space architecture.

Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., the committee's ranking member, recognized that their discussion would be framed by Russia’s invasion, which was a reminder for the United States’ growing protective needs. “The backdrop of this hearing as we all know is Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which will be on the top of our minds for all of us,” he said. “In this forum a year ago, we all lamented the degree to which the global security environment was deteriorating. It was a sobering hearing. But in just 10 months, the global security environment has become exponentially worse. China and Russia are seeking to exploit our weaknesses and we can't let our guard down. As Russian forces massed on the Ukrainian border, Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces exercise designed to intimidate Europe and the United States. The next day, as Ukrainian troops valiantly repelled Russian advances, Putin directed the elevation in the readiness posture of his nuclear forces.”

The ranking member also noted that Russia holds up to 2,000 nuclear warheads not accountable under the new START treaty. The nuclear threat from China, meanwhile, has “also metastasized,” he said. “We all know that China intends to have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. They have conducted a hypersonic fractional orbital bombardment test that surprised the world, and they have constructed new ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] fields that are sprouting like weeds….

[These capabilities] significantly increase the number of targets STRATCOM must hold at risk and they complicate the detection and warning problem for missile defense capabilities.”

Baker emphasized that the Defense Department was tracking Russia’s acute threat as it continues to pace China. “We must diligently calibrate our strategic posture, which is underwritten by our nuclear missile defense space and hypersonic strike capabilities,” she said. Baker also noted that the anticipated new National Defense Strategy (NDS) would detail DoD’s strategic approach, which will include reliance on an integrated deterrence. 

Meanwhile, DoD’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review and Missile Defense Review, which would be “nested” in the NDS, would address China’s ongoing ambitious expansion of its nuclear forces in a triad defense, a launch on warning posture, advanced command and control architecture and an increasing stockpile. In fact, she said, their actions are “a growing factor in how we assess our nuclear posture.” Russia's modernization effort for its nuclear missile space and hypersonic capabilities coupled with its highly aggressive military behavior and its attack against Ukraine “also pose a distinct and pressing challenge.” 

The department is continuing to watch the persistent threat from North Korea, which continues to develop nuclear weapons and associated delivery systems that threaten its region and the U.S. homeland, Baker continued. In addition, Iran's pursuit of nuclear activities continues to be of “deep concern.”

Testifying virtually from Omaha, Adm. Richard deferred any questions relating to Russia and the “ongoing historically significant crisis in Ukraine” to the closed session with lawmakers. “We are experiencing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power the world has ever witnessed,” the admiral testified.

The United States must contend with a three-party nuclear near-peer reality, Adm. Richard noted. China and Russia, in the commander’s opinion, are “nuclear-capable near-peers who have the capability to unilaterally escalate a conflict to any level of violence in any domain worldwide with any instrument of national power.” He called China’s such expansion in 2021 stunning. “Every operational plan in the Department of Defense and every other capability we have rests on an assumption that strategic deterrence, and in particular nuclear deterrence, is holding. And if strategic or nuclear deterrence fails, no other plan and no other capability in the department will work as designed,” Adm. Richard said. Calling for modernization and recapitalization of the nuclear triad, the admiral warned the United States’ existing nuclear forces were “the minimum required” for our defense. 

Gen. Dickinson, the commander of the United States’ most recent unified combatant command, said that his organization was still building toward full operational capability.

Approximately 1,000 warfighters from all services are assigned to U.S. Space Command. “We acknowledge that the challenges from our competitors in the domain are substantial and growing,” Gen. Dickinson noted. 

China remains the pacing challenge in space, with that adversary increasing their on-orbit assets by 27 percent in 2021. They conducted recent counter space capability demonstrations, including their direct descent anti-satellite test and the hypersonic glide vehicle test. “In January, China launched a space debris mitigation satellite docked on a defunct Chinese satellite and moved it to an entirely different orbit,” he explained. To help identify threats, the commander’s top mission priority will be space domain awareness.

Gen. VanHerck also referred to the increasingly complicated and dynamic environment, which should be addressed through integrated deterrence. 

“Russia and China are spreading disinformation, actively sowing division and internal discord with the intent to undermine the foundation of our nation, our democracy and other democracies around the world--we're seeing this play out today with Russia's invasion in Ukraine,” the general clarified. “Meanwhile, those same competitors have invested heavily in conventional precision strike capabilities and advanced delivery platforms, which Russia is currently displaying to the world in pursuit of its regional objectives.”

The general warned against the over reliance “on deterrence by cost imposition,” which he cited “does not adequately account for the conventional capabilities our competitors have already fielded.” 

This over-reliance increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation because it limits our national leaders’ options in crisis and in conflict. Our competitors advance conventional capabilities make it necessary to move forward to a model of integrated deterrence that employs all elements of national influence, leverages allies and partnerships and provides leaders with a wide range of timely deterrence options.”