NATO Seeks a New Equilibrium for Deterrence
NATO leaders are intending to pursue a new equilibrium for deterrence to replace the old system. At TechNet Europe 2026, Col. Mietta Groeneveld, the Netherlands Army, director of the NATO Command and Control Centre of Excellence, explained that it is essential to move away from the old equilibrium, which she called inadequate.
“We have this old equilibrium that we worked on,” Groeneveld said. “We thought that showing that we are very strong is going to be good enough. It’s not at all good enough. So, if you want to get to this new equilibrium, and if you want to get the guinea pig back in the box, we will need to do something, and we need to rethink how we are going to do that on those different levels at the same time.”
What might that “something” be? Groeneveld expounded on her plea by saying NATO needs to accomplish three tasks before this goal can become a reality.
Firstly, she said NATO must build resilience at the national level. Secondly, NATO must ensure that artificial intelligence (AI) will strengthen its socioeconomic structures rather than tearing them down. And lastly, the organization's members must prevent the proliferation of lethal weapons and work together to execute this assignment.
Similarly, the new equilibrium has six principles associated with it: whole of society; resilient by design; informed and connected; deny, disrupt and degrade; partnered and aligned; and democratic strength.
The new equilibrium is more suitable to confront the threat posed by adversaries on the advanced battlefield of today, Groeneveld said. The threat is constant and continuous because even though an enemy might not physically attack in the near future, it could still launch attacks via other avenues, such as cyber, at any time.
NATO officials are learning that defense and deterrence mechanisms must be ready and at hand at all times. But due to its novelty, NATO personnel do not fully comprehend it yet. They are taking on the challenge of grasping this concept, Groeneveld assured.
“I think that the threat in the homeland is more acute, but it is yet not fully represented in our military mindset,” Groeneveld said. “We’re all in bubbles, and when I get in this military bubble, go away. We’re working. We’re very, very hardworking.”
We thought that showing that we are very strong is going to be good enough. It’s not at all good enough.
“This military mindset and this cultural shift are extremely hard because we think linearly,” Groeneveld added. “We have based our systems hierarchically. We change NATO’s posture every five years, so we have cycles of five years. We will implement this new thinking in 20 years—that’s not going to work. So, we have this linear and symmetric approach to a very asymmetric threat, and it requires us as a community here to act and to talk to the other side.”
Groeneveld concluded the keynote address by saying if all NATO members stay in their own “bubble,” they cannot achieve progress. NATO and its partners need to work together because one side could have a solution that the other side needs. Contributing members also must always remember what they are defending: their freedom and values, she said.
“I am not a mercenary, so a military person always only can fight when it’s about value, and you can only make this argument when you talk about values,” Groeneveld said. “It’s very important to state that if you also look in our constitutions [and ask] what are we about. I think that’s a relevant point to make. Our military role really needs to shift a little bit, and [we need] to rethink how it’s stated.”
TechNet Europe 2026, taking place in Berlin, is an international event organized by AFCEA Europe in cooperation with the AFCEA Bonn E.V. Chapter. SIGNAL Media is the official media of AFCEA International.
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