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U.S. Deterrence Credibility at Risk

Events are happening at an accelerating pace, with action needed now.

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) appears on a video screen above fellow panelist Elbridge A. Colby (l), co-founder and principal, the Marathon Initiative, and panel host Adm. William F. Moran, USN (Ret.), former vice chief of naval operations, in the opening session of day 2 at WEST 2022 in San Diego. Photo by Michael Carpenter

The United States must abandon ambiguity and declare its intentions to stand up to aggression or face its consequences sooner than many think possible, leading experts say. Their warnings largely concerned the Indo-Pacific region, but the principle can apply worldwide as threats are growing and challenges to peace and security are becoming more overt.

These points were raised by two key participants at the opening keynote session on Day 2 of WEST 2022, the conference and exposition hosted by AFCEA International and the U.S. Naval Institute in San Diego February 16-18. A discussion hosted by Adm. William F. Moran, USN (Ret.), former vice chief of naval operations, featured common ground between two experts from opposite sides of the political aisle, one of whom is a Navy veteran serving in Congress.

While the topic of the panel was whether the government communicated its ideas to the public effectively, the two panelists were clear about the views they espoused to the audience. “If China dominates Asia, that’s going to be all of our lives,” stated Elbridge A. Colby, co-founder and principal, the Marathon Initiative. He warned a war in Asia would be a military conflict, but the stakes really would be the economy. The United States must take a stand against Chinese aggression in the First Island Chain, which is the closest archipelago to China, as part of its deterrent policy. “We’re going to need a Navy and Space Force that can deny a Chinese invasion or assaults in the First Island Chain,” Colby said.

A war in Asia would be a military conflict, but the stakes would be the economy.—Elbridge A. Colby, co-founder and principal, the Marathon Initiative @ElbridgeColby #WEST2022
— Bob Ackerman (@rkackerman) February 17, 2022

Inaction could be the Achilles Heel to U.S. Pacific policy. “We have to get outside of the bubble,” said Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), vice chair, House Armed Services Committee. “We talk about China, China, China, but we have to talk about the risk of not doing anything.”

Rep. Luria warned that existing strategies have left the president’s hands tied. “There is nothing giving us the authority to act in a deterrent way if the Chinese start to act against Taiwan,” the retired Navy commander said. “It is time for us to change that strategic ambiguity to one of strategic certainty.”

And the need to eliminate that ambiguity may come sooner rather than later. “I think there is a real possibility that the Chinese move on Taiwan before 2027, especially if the Russians tie us down in Europe,” Colby warned. “An ounce of prevention now will be so much better than a pound of failure later.”

He suggested that the United States and Japan form a combined forces command. Japan has changed so much in recent years that this concept would have a greater likelihood of succeeding than in the past. This would help address the rapidly growing challenges posed by Chinese aggression. “China’s a long-term problem like acute heart disease,” he analogized. “You’re lucky if you get through the acute phase.”

Why don’t we have a combined forces command with Japan? Japan is changing [greatly].—Elbridge A. Colby, co-founder and principal, the Marathon Initiative @ElbridgeColby #WEST2022
— Bob Ackerman (@rkackerman) February 17, 2022

Rep. Luria called for increasing Coast Guard operations in the Indo-Pacific theater, calling it “extremely important.” But in discussing the broad problems with government budgeting, she added that nothing would matter unless the defense budget problems were ironed out.

Maybe none of this stuff really matters if we can’t get the defense [budget] stuff right.—Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), vice chair, HASC @RepElaineLuria #WEST2022
— Bob Ackerman (@rkackerman) February 17, 2022

If deterrence fails and China begins aggressive military operations to achieve its expansionist goals, the U.S. economy will suffer greatly, panelists agreed. Adm. Moran summed up the issue by saying, “The pandemic’s effect on the supply chain is a perfect metaphor. If the Chinese decide to shut down the sea lanes, this is what you wind up with.”